Nigeria- The Way Forward or The Way Backward - Aare Anabury

FEB 16TH, 2019, A DAY TO DECIDE

I mean not to disrespect other presidential candidates contesting this Saturday's general elections, but if we won't deceive ourselves, the election is a two-horse race between the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Anybody who disputes this should tell me the names of the other contestants and their political parties; and also describe their party logos with how far they think they can go in the forth coming election.

February 16th 2019, will be a very memorable day in the history of our great country Nigeria because it's going to be a day to choose a new leader, I am not here to argue on who has much popularity or who has more chance of winning but all I know is whoever will win has gone through HELL.

It is no more a story that for anybody to win a presidential election in Nigeria, the person must be contesting on the platform of a party who has a national spread and structures al over the country. With this, young people like Sowore (ACC), Fashua (ANRP) and lot more won't have much votes on election day. I bet if all of them could gather a million vote all together, so sad though.

So let us be clear that we are dealing with only two presidential candidates here: President Buhari and former Vice President Atiku. Party men and supporters are back in the trenches; not that they really left the trenches after the 2015 presidential election. They are abusing two septuagenarians as if they are dealing with their domestic staffs. I know politics is war, even in advanced countries, and all is fair and square. In fact it is worse than war. In war, at least we have POW (prisoners of war), but in politics, you take no prisoners. Insults and abuses are part of the price you pay for submitting yourself for public offices. But I personally find these abuses and insults unhelpful. They muddle up issues and blur our vision, they go after your past in order to affect your present, non of your opponent will say anything good about you, but be making researches on what you have done bad in the past.

What really baffles me is this, are we Nigerians going forward  with Buhari who took us from frying pan to fire or maybe we are going back to Atiku who privatised Nigeria till date, people says the devil you know yesterday is better than the angel just coming but I see this proverb as irrelevant in this aspect, so where exactly do we go to? These two political parties has the highest numbers of supporters and even the voters don't even care about who there parties are presenting. They just go after the interest of their political parties. But would this take us any where? A question for another day.

In spite of the apparent defects that still exist in between this two political parties, we seem to be making some progress, even if slowly. Voters are getting more enlightened and sophisticated. Why do you think people will leave their homes at 2am to queue to collect their voter’s cards and when they get to the collection centres, there are already thousands of people on the line waiting to collect their PVCs? Voters, not rigging, will determine who emerges the most populous black country president in 2019, though there have been allegations that the ruling party is planning to rig the election. I believe it's a false allegation because I don't expect any one, who saw how ex-president Jonathan's act of maturity during the 2015 poll to still believe in rigging. Then, he had the best opportunity, materials, man power and even external supports but still He accepted defeat, Jonathan to me remains a leaader we all should emulate in our dear country.

Religion and ethnicity: those two words are major factors bringing this country down but I think you and I can bring an end to this. Though, I personally believe these will play a less prominent role in determining who wins the 2019 presidential election because the two main contestants are Fulani Muslims.

Looking at the 2015 elections, former President Goodluck Jonathan lost not necessarily because of what he did, but because of what he failed to do. And Buhari won because of the perception that he will do what Jonathan failed to do. In 2019, Buhari’s fate will rest more on what he failed to do than what he did. On the other hand, Atiku’s fate will rest heavily on whether or not Nigerians think he can do what Buhari failed to do.

Anti-corruption War:  the various probes and revelations have proven that corruption was epidemic during the Jonathan’s government. Buhari promised to fight corruption and that was one of the main reasons he won the election in 2015. He has been fighting it over the last three years and has achieved some success in certain areas. The revelation that the Joint Admission and Matriculation Board remitted a paltry N50m to the government coffers in five years under the PDP and remitted N5b in one year under APC is a case in point. But like the Obasanjo government, critics are complaining that the Buhari government’s fight against corruption is targeted mainly at opposition members. Many critics see Buhari as a medical doctor who hates abortions and would never conduct it, but allows his clinic and doctors he employed to do it. The current bribery allegation against a governor who is one of his staunch supporters is a litmus test; it will either provide more ammunition for his critics or his supporters, depending on how it is handled or turns out because it’s still an allegation

Corruption permeates the entire fabric of the Nigerian society. So many people believe that any real fight against corruption should focus more on having strong independent institutions, not individuals. Sara Netanyahu, the wife of the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, went on trial recently on corruption charges. This is still not possible in Nigeria. Nigerians want a system where everybody, apart from the president and governors who have immunity, can be prosecuted for corruption. Many Nigerians prefer having strong independent institutions to fight corruption instead of our President mouthing anti-corruption on a daily basis.  Buhari is perceived as not corrupt, but not so for people around him, let's not forget that the success of any administration depends on the caliber of people that surrounds it.

On the other hand, perhaps the biggest baggage Atiku is carrying is being perceived as corrupt. The fact that he is a retired customs officer has not helped matters. His former boss, Obasanjo and other documented sources have also not helped the perception of many. Now his opponents are behaving like typical wrestlers. They are concentrating on his perceived area of weakness. He has challenged anybody who has anything on corruption against him to go to court. In 1992, former US President Bill Clinton was plagued by all kinds of sex scandals, but he still went on to win the US presidential election and got re-elected four years later in spite of more scandals. Americans wanted a better economy and he gave it to them. He was forgiven for an act that usually brought down top politicians in America. How much damage Atiku’s opponents can inflict on him also depends on what majority of Nigerians want at the moment.

Economy:  The economy will be a major determinant of who wins the 2019 presidential election. Unfortunately, the handler of the economy has been poor in the last three and half years. Growth has slowed down, while we went into a recession. Buhari’s government and supporters can quote increase in foreign exchange reserve, Nigeria retaining its position as the biggest economy in Africa and other positive economic indices, but what matters to the ordinary man is his disposable income and purchasing power. Both have deteriorated over the last three years. Many small and medium- scale businesses are under pressure. About 11 million Nigerians are said to have gone into unemployment since 2015. I do not know how the Buhari government wants to reverse the trend, but if they go into the 2019 elections with many Nigerians in this state, it will hurt his chances.

Conversely, many Nigerians find the combination of Atiku and his Vice Presidential Candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, very tantalizing as far as running the Nigerian economy is concerned. Both are very successful and accomplished businessmen. We must give credit to whom it is due. Even if Atiku made so much money as a custom officer, was he the only customs man who made money? Go and see many of these retired customs men; they are either broke or financially stagnated. Others are still assess as being rich, but poor. Atiku left the custom service more than 25 years ago and left government in 2007. Many of those who have been out of government since 2007, including former governors, are presently very broke. Some only go to Abuja when somebody sponsors their trips. No matter how he came by his wealth, Atiku knows how to turn N1 to N2 and that is why he is still stupendously rich. Many believe he and Obi can do a similar thing with the Nigerian economy.

Security:  Buhari has been far more successful on the security front, especially the fight against Boko Haram insurgents, than Jonathan. It is difficult to argue that a “bloody” civilian like Atiku can do better than Buhari, a retired army general, on security matters. But the Buhari government’s handling of the herdsmen crisis has left a major dent on his achievements on the security front. Curiously, in those times Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was acting President, Herdsmen seemed to lose their appetite for violence. Minus this blight, it is very difficult to say that Atiku can do better than Buhari on security matters. Although, you can argue that improvement in the economy will automatically lead to improvement in the security situation.

National Integration:  The Buhari government has performed very poorly in the area of national integration. Appointments of heads of security agencies is very lopsided and insensitive. Kano and Katsina have also been unduly favoured in recruitments into government agencies and establishments. Nigeria has been more degregated in those areas. This government has brought the country into so many disaster and I don't think voters will support Buhari on this note.

Restructuring:  Whatever restructuring means to you, it is something that is very dear to people in the South, but Buhari does not see it that way, he is been carried away by his northern agenda. He told a delegation I was part of that many of us asking for restructuring are only pursuing parochial interests. This might be true, but even as nebulous as the agitation currently is; he should have followed up on the report of Gov. El-Rufai committee on restructuring set up by the APC. His aides should have prevailed on him. His lack of actions on the report might hunt him in the South on election day especially when Atiku is promising restructuring.

In the final analysis, the way I see it, who will win the 2019 presidential election will be determined by what is most important to voters at this time. If it is fight against corruption, Buhari will get re-elected, even though his anti-corruption war is flawed. But if people are more interested in restructuring and a better economy, Atiku will carry the day. Whoever gets elected must, however, put independent and enduring anti-corruption mechanisms in place.

I wish Nigerians best of lucky in the race of choosing the next PRESIDENT but before I end I want all this OLD men to know we are coming and when the time comes, they should know it will be in a very HARD way, not something they could ESCAPE.


Ayeni Olalekan Olayinka, popularly known as Aare Anabury is a Data analyst, Economist and Statistician, he writes from Ibadan, Oyo state, Southwest Nigeria.